World Cup 2022 – Our Outsider Picks


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Carl Hughes Betting Expert

Updated:November 19, 2022

In this article we’ll take a look at our outsider picks for the 2022 World Cup and what odds UK betting sites have placed on each outcome.

World Cup 2022 Winners


First ever World Cup winners Uruguay should never be underestimated, and I feel they’ll top Group H, which has Portugal, South Korea and Ghana. The squad has such a good mixture of young hungry players and experienced veterans, and they’ll be looking to cause some upsets at this World Cup.

I’m sure the players themselves believe they can win it, and the spirit, and fight that Uruguay will bring is what can propel them forward. Other countries may be more talented on paper, but that talent can only get you so far in a World Cup. Uruguay have something special, and they always seem to perform at major tournaments.

The experienced Fernando Muslera is likely to start in goal, and he’s back for his fourth World Cup. It gives the back line reassurance to know they have that behind them. With the likes of Jose Gimenez, Ronaldo Araujo and Sebastian Coates in central defence, it gives the team even more security. Araujo has shown at Barcelona the pace and power he has, and he can also play at right-back, while Jose Gimenez has been a fantastic serving for Atletico Madrid throughout his career, always impressing.

Midfield options seem very strong too, with Federico Valverde enjoying a wonderful season for Real Madrid again, carrying on from last season, and Rodrigo Bentancur has been one of, if not the best player for Tottenham Hotspur this season, with both bringing amazing ability to the squad. Valvarde can also play a number of different positions, as we’ve seen him play central midfield or operating out on the right hand side of a front three for Real Madrid. The midfield duo could be as good as any at the World Cup this year.

Matias Vecino and Lucas Torreira are also in the squad, and it’s two players that occupy a necessary position for a winning team. Holding midfielders are so important to a team, to hunt down players, win the ball back and get your team in transition means you have to be switched on from the first second to the last. While only one are likely to start, these two could be key assets for Uruguay to carry the team through tough moments in games.

Attacking wise, there’s so much talent and experience with the likes of Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani. Sure they may have aged, but then you add in Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez and he gives you the legs, along with the finishing, while the ability to score goals will never fade for Suarez and Cavani. The team has a great balance all throughout the squad, and with Valverde and Bentacur creating for the options up top, there are sure to be many chances for Uruguay’s strikers to find he back of the net.

There’s a lot to be positive about for Uruguay, and they should certainly be seen as the dark horse to win the World Cup. Don’t ever count them out.


Uruguay 40/1 – bet365

To Win The Group

Portugal are favourites to top Group H, which means choosing Uruguay is a great option for the bet. Even without any issues, Uruguay could top this group, but Portugal could have their problems due to Cristiano Ronaldo’s interview, or even Ronaldo out of form, while Uruguay could take full advantage of anything that goes wrong for Portugal.

With South Korea and Ghana completing Group H, they could also cause problems but they don’t seem to have enough in their team that should worry Uruguay. Son Heung-min will be at the World Cup, but coming back from an injury to the face, while Napoli’s Kim Min-jae is the only other standout for South Korea. For Ghana, they’re the lowest ranked nation in the FIFA world rankings, and that doesn’t bode well for their tournament with a tough group like this.

Portugal is the only team that Uruguay will fight it out for, and that word fight is where I feel Uruguay have the edge over Portugal to top the group.


Uruguay 15/8 – bet365

FIFA Golden Boot

Darwin Nunez

The Liverpool man has had his critics since joining in the Summer, but he is always a danger. There’s a reason he was bought for 75 million, and it’s to score goals. Of course that will take time as he settles in to the English game, but he’s already shown what he’s capable of. He can also come in from a wider position if Suarez or Cavani are to start. As a player he’s frightening quick and his movement is unmatched at times, gone in the blink of an eye which is a nightmare for defenders up against him. With that, there should be plenty of chances for him to finish.


Darwin Nunez 40/1 – bet365

Combining Uruguay and Darwin Nunez as a double to Win the World Cup and the FIFA Golden Boot is 300/1.

Luis Suarez

Will he start? Maybe not, but when he plays, he’s effective. He’s always that one player that you expect to show up with a goal out of nothing. If Uruguay need a goal, Suarez is who you would back to score them and he’ll be looking to get on the end of any ball into that box, like it is a magnet to his boot. Anything scrappy somehow finds his way to him, and he’s deadly from inside the box. He’ll also likely be hitting penalties and free-kicks should they get any dangerous set-pieces.


Luis Suarez 66/1 – bet365

The same as above, Luis Suarez as FIFA Golden Boot and Uruguay to lift the World Cup is 300/1.

FIFA Golden Ball

Federico Valverde

The Real Madrid player who has impressed over the last two seasons has to be in with a shout of winning the player of the tournament. He’s involved in so much of what takes part on the pitch, and he’s become a world class talent. He’s invaluable to the team, and can also pop up with a finish from his thunderous shots that have already gained attention. With his creative ability down the right hand side, he’ll be putting dangerous balls into the box for deadly strikers to get on the end of, and what he produces time and again is a pass that defenders can’t cope with. He’s a great option for Golden Ball.


Federico Valverde 80/1 – bet365

About the author

Carl Hughes


Carl Hughes


Carl Hughes is a leading expert on sports and casino betting. Carl began his career with a BSc in Sport, Exercise and Health Sciences from the University of Birmingham before working within the industry for some of the bigger names (GVC and Bet365) and has been praised as being "a leading sports betting commentator".